Spent some time doing simulation for EJ today for sept 2015
The simulator has several disadvantages. There is no way for you to do analysis on higher timeframes.
If we look at H1, I should be bullish instead of looking for short on the 24th September.
Therefore, by right the trades should have been taken at the arrow:
All the shorts that I had taken were stupid trades:
My old bad habits. When I am wrong, I tend to average in and shift my SL. I should stick to my plan. Once I am stopped out, I need to spend some time to re-evaluate my thinking.
Below is a close up view of the trades I took the following day:
Again, I am showing signs of revenge trading. The circle refers to stupid trades.
Market has already moved down 3 to 4 stages. Did not know what got into me to short at that price.
Thinking that price moved a new low, the subsequent up move (2nd circle) was interpreted as a stop hunt during US session. Again, this is interpreted wrongly as a manipulation move.
This was followed by a long trade at terrible price (Chasing because I have lost so many times on this day)
On the following day on the 29th Sep, I took a long trade at a good price after Asian Low was cleared. Price did not hit my 50 pip TP.
During the Euro session, the high volume bullish bar was being taken out. Immediately, I wanted to short. After the high volume bar was taken out, there was no setup for me to short unless the challenge of the previous high to form a HnS for short is one of my strategies. The place where I shorted was too low. In fact, it was a stop hunt high and low. Price actually move 25 pips to catch ppl off guard. However it is really quite difficult to long after a move of 25 pips out of the range although I was taught that pros can move price 25 to 50 pips of previous day High Low and Asian High Low.
There are clues on higher timeframe indicating that I should take a long trade. The last 2 long trades were stupid trades as I had lost too much and chased.
The next day is a challenging day.I should be bullish based on the price action on the previous day.
However, during the Asian session, the professional bars tell a very different story on 15M. Price was accumulating towards the end of the session the previous day. n the 30 Sept, price challenged 135 and dropped. It was followed by a retest of 135 and dropped deeper, though it did not challenge the previous high. During the drop deeper, there was no new resistance. I should have waited for price to challenge the high or the previous high circled and short. Instead I averaged in all the way to the top. This is a bad habit.
On the 1st Oct, the previous day pro down push was cleared by the high during Asian Session. I went long on the bearish bar. I should 1) have waited for the price to drop at least 5 to 10 pips below Asian high before going long. 2) wait for a new support and for price to challenge this new support. This is a setup for myself illustrated by the red arrow. Did not know why I did not go long during simulation. The 3rd trade during mid euro session was valid but stopped out. This trade was largely driven by the color of the candlestick of SONICR. If I had looked carefully, actually the volume is not fantastic. Then I got fed up and over traded. This type of stop hunt up and down was similar to the move on 29th October. The move on 1st Oct to challenge the previous day low was approximately 25 to 30 pips.
For the long trades at the bottom on the 22 Sept, I should not enter on the first high volume. But wait for another drop to test. The 3rd drop is the most crucial for me to standby. Such similar patterns can be found on the 28 September:
If we look at H1, I should be bullish instead of looking for short on the 24th September.
Therefore, by right the trades should have been taken at the arrow:
All the shorts that I had taken were stupid trades:
My old bad habits. When I am wrong, I tend to average in and shift my SL. I should stick to my plan. Once I am stopped out, I need to spend some time to re-evaluate my thinking.
Below is a close up view of the trades I took the following day:
Again, I am showing signs of revenge trading. The circle refers to stupid trades.
Market has already moved down 3 to 4 stages. Did not know what got into me to short at that price.
Thinking that price moved a new low, the subsequent up move (2nd circle) was interpreted as a stop hunt during US session. Again, this is interpreted wrongly as a manipulation move.
This was followed by a long trade at terrible price (Chasing because I have lost so many times on this day)
On the following day on the 29th Sep, I took a long trade at a good price after Asian Low was cleared. Price did not hit my 50 pip TP.
During the Euro session, the high volume bullish bar was being taken out. Immediately, I wanted to short. After the high volume bar was taken out, there was no setup for me to short unless the challenge of the previous high to form a HnS for short is one of my strategies. The place where I shorted was too low. In fact, it was a stop hunt high and low. Price actually move 25 pips to catch ppl off guard. However it is really quite difficult to long after a move of 25 pips out of the range although I was taught that pros can move price 25 to 50 pips of previous day High Low and Asian High Low.
There are clues on higher timeframe indicating that I should take a long trade. The last 2 long trades were stupid trades as I had lost too much and chased.
The next day is a challenging day.I should be bullish based on the price action on the previous day.
However, during the Asian session, the professional bars tell a very different story on 15M. Price was accumulating towards the end of the session the previous day. n the 30 Sept, price challenged 135 and dropped. It was followed by a retest of 135 and dropped deeper, though it did not challenge the previous high. During the drop deeper, there was no new resistance. I should have waited for price to challenge the high or the previous high circled and short. Instead I averaged in all the way to the top. This is a bad habit.
On the 1st Oct, the previous day pro down push was cleared by the high during Asian Session. I went long on the bearish bar. I should 1) have waited for the price to drop at least 5 to 10 pips below Asian high before going long. 2) wait for a new support and for price to challenge this new support. This is a setup for myself illustrated by the red arrow. Did not know why I did not go long during simulation. The 3rd trade during mid euro session was valid but stopped out. This trade was largely driven by the color of the candlestick of SONICR. If I had looked carefully, actually the volume is not fantastic. Then I got fed up and over traded. This type of stop hunt up and down was similar to the move on 29th October. The move on 1st Oct to challenge the previous day low was approximately 25 to 30 pips.
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